National and International

Can We Expect Oil Demand To Slow Anytime Soon?

The actual forecast on which competitive advantages are built is not the result of extrapolations from past experience. It is the result of early identification of the trends that will lead to a market, which often means understanding what consumers will like before they know it, and understanding how these trends will impact the market, before they actually do. . Predicting the demand for oil on this basis leads to some interesting – and some shocking – ideas.

Given that world oil demand comes from several segments of the world economy, each of which is influenced by different trends, current oil demand must first be divided into its main components before a trend forecast is developed.

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the main driver of oil demand is transport, or about 56% of total oil demand, or about 52 million barrels per day (mb / ) In 2015. Second part The industrial demand for industries such as iron, steel, cement production, construction and mining, which together represent 15% of the world’s oil demand, that is, 14 Mb / d Petrochemicals are third parties, accounting for 12 percent of world oil demand, 11 mb / d, while electricity production is the fourth with 6 percent, or 6 mb / d. Global demand, or 10 mb / d, comes from a range of different industries such as agriculture, bitumen and lubricants.

However, transport, the most important driver of oil demand, is by no means a homogeneous group, since it includes components for passenger vehicles (25 mb / d), commercial vehicles (17 mb / J), aviation ( 6 mb / d) and marine (5 mb / d). Some of the components of transportation are the most important drivers of oil demand than drivers other than transportation. Therefore, a forecast based on the trend of world oil demand requires a breakdown of current demand for oil, as shown in figure 1.

Under the pressure of tighter emissions regulations, the fuel economy of passenger cars has improved considerably in recent years. The average fuel economy in the US, for example, weighted sales of 20.8 mpg rose in 2008 to 25.1 mpg by 2017, an increase of 25% despite a trend Towards vehicles (SUVs) among consumers. And there is no reason to suppose that in the near future this trend will come to an abrupt end.
Related: Goldman Sachs warns peak of global oil demand

What is likely, however, is a gradual increase in the share of electric vehicles (EV) in the overall set of passenger vehicles, since basically the EV can meet the transport needs of consumers in a way (ICEV) – more storage and storage space for equal size, acceleration and deceleration faster, smoother, less maintenance, more reliable and environmentally friendly Among other things. Recent additions to the range of available EV models have already triggered this electrification revolution.

These cars, like Chevrolet’s Tesla bolt models, offer a range of behavior that goes beyond the needs of a typical ride, and that is essentially equal to the range offered by the ICEV. Under the impetus of improved battery technology, the cost of living of these EVs is also closer to that of the ICEVs.

Already, the cost of operating EV (fuel) and maintenance are much lower than those of ICEV. By the mid-2020s, battery technology should improve to the point that electric vehicles are cheaper to produce than ICEV in that electric vehicles exceed ICEV on a global cost basis and become the option Preferred In most parts of the world (it is interesting to note that the two countries that are expected to drive growth in the global vehicle market in China and India are also those that continue to electrify their fleet of vehicles more aggressively. )

Renewables: Trump’s Key To U.S. Energy Dominance?

As a pro-oil administration entered the White House, the oil industry lobby welcomed America-First’s energy strategy, while proponents of cleaner energy argued that the United States “United States Needs a more diversified energy mix in which renewable energies should have a greater participation.

The outgoing president of the pro-oil field Trump argued that more US oil and gas drilling will increase energy independence, create more jobs and ultimately lead to US power domination.

The other view is that, despite the skeptics, climate change is here and a threat, and the United States should use more renewable energy in its energy matrix if global warming is possible and follow the rest of the World in terms of clean energy development.

Last week, the debate was the articles of the Point / Counterpoint Center in The State Journal-Register, in which Jack N. Gerard, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API), and Michael Kraft, Professor Emeritus of Science Politics and Public and Environmental Affairs of the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, offered his views on the expansion of US oil drilling to boost jobs.

Gerard, the API, argued that the US oil and gas industry is an “exceptional work creator” that adds billions of dollars to the US economy and stimulate economic activity in all states, whether large-scale producers Of oil or gas.

On the other hand, Professor Kraft emphasizes that the cleaner energy revolution reduces energy costs, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and improves air quality and public health.

In his opinion piece, the IPY president quoted a study by PwC for the Petroleum Institute and published last month, indicating that in 2015 the oil and gas industry has supported 10 3 million full-time jobs And part-time through direct employment and indirect support to other sectors.

This is a 5.2 percent increase over 2011. By 2015, the industry contributed US $ 1.3 billion to the US economy, which represented 7.6 percent of GDP in the United States. As a counterpoint, Kraft also reports on recent studies, but without naming them, shows that employment in cleaner energy production is on the rise.

For example, such a study could be the United States energy and employment report for January this year, which showed that proportionally, solar employment represents the largest proportion of workers in the electricity generation sector, To the construction related to the significant increase of the new Solar Capacity.

According to the Department of Energy’s report, solar technology employs some 374,000 workers, or 43% of the electricity generation workforce. To compare, the use of fossil fuel production accounts for 22% of the total electrical workforce and supports 187,117 workers in coal, oil and natural gas production technologies.

The oil industry lobby naturally requires more federal offshore exploration space. Kraft, on the other hand, sees the future as legislation that promotes a diversity of new energy technologies. He argues that as clean energies become more competitive, the transition to cleaner energy will naturally occur, with well-designed policies to ensure a smoother transition without economic disruption.

Last year, renewable energy sources accounted for about 10 percent of total energy consumption in the United States and about 15 percent of electricity generation. Gérard de API maintains that “expanding access to US energy resources is essential for energy security and economic growth in the future.” It calls for the opening of a larger area outside development because “we let hundreds of thousands of well-paid jobs at the table, let alone increased production of more than a million barrels of Oil equivalent per day.”

Teenage boy detained in Saudi Arabia for dancing to ‘Macarena’ on the streets

Saudi police said Tuesday they had arrested a 14-year-old boy in Jeddah after being filmed dancing in the famous song ‘Macarena’ in 1990 a crossroads in the city. The video clip has become viral with many people sharing it on social networks.

The teenager was questioned because he had shown “inappropriate public behavior,” and also stopped the traffic after a “confidential investigation,” police in Mecca said in a statement. The name and identity of the young man were not revealed. It is unclear whether charges will be formally prosecuted.

The video clip shows the 45 second teenager wearing a striped shirt, gray shorts and dancing shoes in the middle of a crossroads on the way to Prince Mohamed Bin Abdulaziz in Riyadh with his headphones that cover his ears while still standing Opposite five lanes of cars, which had stopped at a traffic sign.

According to the Middle East Eye, the video appeared online in 2016, but was deleted. Resurfaced last week. The secure video has received a lot of attention on Twitter.

Abu Dhabi Police recently arrested four people, including a woman, after a video had a conversation with one of the detainees was downloaded on the Internet last week. Police said they had been arrested because the video was “offensive to the culture of the Emirates.”

The video has also been criticized on social networks and has been described as unethical and offensive to UAE society. According to the culture of the United Arab Emirates, men and women from different families can not meet alone. They must be accompanied by a family chaperone.

The detainees were charged with “reckless conduct” while the video was removed. However, the detainees said they were making the video in order to warn women to date strangers on social networks.